Download Analytic Support to Intelligence in Counterinsurgencies by Walter L. Perry, John Gordon PDF

By Walter L. Perry, John Gordon

Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have proven that U.S. forces desire more-effective options and approaches to behavior counterinsurgency. they are going to probably face comparable, abnormal struggle strategies from destiny enemies. This monograph examines the character of the modern rebel possibility and gives insights on utilizing operational research strategies to aid intelligence operations in counterinsurgencies.

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Most assume an underlying randomness associated with enemy behavior. For example, an examination of past enemy attacks might reveal that the interarrival time of the attacks is exponentially distributed, leading to a Poisson distribution of the number of attacks per time interval. This is also true of the location of the attack. 7 7 The SCAN statistic, for example, is used to predict the spread of diseases. The assumption is that the timing and location of future outbreaks has a bivariate Poisson distribution.

When examining insurgent attacks, this means looking at all attacks that have taken place from the protoinsurgency period onward. However, what occurred six months ago may have no relevance to what will occur tomorrow. By shortening the time horizon, we are much more likely to capture enemy adaptations. 4. Their development should benefit from input from local commands. Regardless of how good the predictive technique may be, it will remain unused if the local commanders and their staff do not view it as helpful.

It is normally composed of a small cadre of “true believers” who are strongly committed to dramatic change in the political-economic status quo of a nation or region. At this stage their capabilities—including their potential to “make trouble”—are limited. , the overthrow of the existing government), but these embryonic groups may actually be at odds with each other. At this early stage of an insurgency, 8 Analytic Support to Intelligence in Counterinsurgencies the main concern of the insurgents is to survive.

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